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Have ER Offer; Can't decide if I should take it

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Ok fellas, I have a dilemma. Short of it is I've been offered a senior associate gig at a very well reputed research shop here in town, and I can't decide if I should take it. Part of this is just talking myself through it I guess, but hoping other people might have some outside, unbiased advice.

Now more detail:
- I'm 30, and have worked for one company my entire adult life. Total 7 years with them now, 2 before university 5 since.
- A few months back I was promoted to Manager of Investor Relations.
- A few weeks ago I got randomly called by the analyst hiring, asking to get coffee. I'd applied I think 3 years ago, he held onto my information. Now I have an offer letter in my hands.
- Base salary is approximately 60% of what I make now (problem with having been bumped to middle management). But he assures me, with the annual bonus, I'll probably be roughly even with the corporate salary and bonus in my first year, and just goes up from there.

So, pro's of making the switch:
- I have experience with one management team. Research exposes me to dozens.
- I'm in a dying sector:
- - - ER exit opportunities are (I'm assuming) pretty dang good. A sell side research gig would open the door to staying on the financial services side.
- - - My current company will exist in 10 and probably 20 years, but I have 35 years until retirement. I can't say I expect our sector to be around for that long, or to be making any money at all by that time.
- - - I'm on track to an officer role here, eventually I could be CFO if I don't totally mess anything up. But like I said - it's a slowly dying sector. Who wants to be CFO of a sinking ship.
- - - 99% of the guys in my line of work will switch to our competitors, but very few actually make it out of the sector. And the longer I wait, the harder it'll get.
- Long term financial rewards of the ER side are probably better than what I'll get staying on industry side.
- HUGE learning opportunity. My recent promotion means I have sure 2 years of learning ahead of me on the current path, while figuring things out. But research grows that exponentially.
- My sector has a pretty big center in London too. Getting SS experience could give me an opportunity to eventually transfer there (I love London).
- The guys seem like a really good fit, and the analyst insists that he can get out at 3 on Fridays not inconsistently.

And cons:
- 6 AM meetings. Every day.
- Annual gross comp comparable, but giving up a very comfortable salary to get there.
- Have to pay for my own cell phone (I know right??), CFA dues too. Actually, I have to pay for pretty much everything. It's a partner owned firm so they're very, very frugal on what they cover.
- Walking away from a known variable in my life - I love my current coworkers and bosses and culture. But it's worth mentioning this new place has been described as the old boys club - everybody wants in, and they really emphasized fit in my interviews. So there's no indication that I won't have that at the new place.
- 6AM meeting. Every day.
- Reporting season hours. Worth mentioning that the farther down the management path I go at my corporate gig, the worse the hours get here too. But at least I don't have to be in for 6AM every day.
- Probably have to move out on my roommate. He's noisy and I won't be able to sleep enough to get up for the 6 AM meeting, every day.
- I'm single and actively dating. A good date usually ends at 1AM after a bottle of wine, then I just slog it through the corporate grind the next day. Even a shitty date doesn't start until 9. Something tells me this isn't going to work in ER.
- Did I mention I'll have to be in office for a 6 AM meeting, every day?
- Because the firm works as a partnership (or whatever you call it), compensation becomes almost or entirely variable by the time you hit analyst. Company not making money, you're not making money. They do give the associates a guaranteed salary though (he didn't actually say if they take that away when you partner up).
- My current employer has treated me very well. Like way better than I ever felt like I deserved. I hate to walk away from that.
- I was just promoted in February. I hate to bail on the company so soon after they gave me that vote of confidence.

So yeah. 3 years ago I was very actively pursuing research (thats how he had my info). 2 years ago I would have accepted the offer on the spot. 6 months ago, prior to this promotion, I probably would have but was starting to get comfortable after some raises/etc. Today, I honestly have no idea what I should do. If I stay at my industry gig I can be grossing $200K in the next 5-7 years probably, if not sooner, which is no small chunk of change no matter who you are.

So in summary - money isn't a huge factor in the decision. It comes down to I want the experience and exit, and of the research firms in my city, this one always was my top pick. But I really don't like the idea of 6AM meetings.


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